Eagle-Tribune Blogs: Burt Talks Sports

I don’t think the Lakers know what they’re getting into here.
I believe Phil Jackson believes his nine championships will somehow rub off on his team, which is a very good team, and lead them to an NBA title.
I don’t see it.
I have a story going in tomorrow’s Eagle-Tribune, with 10 reasons why I think the Celtics will win it.
Here are the reasons.
1. Paul Pierce.
I wouldn’t suggest he is better than Kobe Bryant, but for this series he will eliminate the Kobe Advantage the Los Angeles Lakers bring to the NBA Finals. Pierce, was noted here on Monday, has the most to gain or lose. This is his day to shine, on the biggest stage, and finally get something he’s always craved | his due.
That will come not only with a championship but an MVP performance.
Los Angeles is where he grew up in his formative years. Boston is where he grew up as an adult, literally before our eyes.
You couldn’t write a better script. Only a leading man, like Pierce, could make it happen.
Kobe will have average more points, probably in the high 20s maybe even the low 30s. But Pierce will be around the mid-20s, which will off set most of his output.

2. West Coast bias.
I can’t say I blame them. We can understand as in the National Football League, the AFC is the big league and the NFC the junior circuit. The same in baseball, with the American League being the daddy to the National League.
The Lakers and Spurs have combined to win seven of the last nine titles. Only the Miami Heat (2006) and Detroit Pistons (2004) have won it from east of the Mississippi.
The problem is the West Conference was better, from 1 through 10, but not 1 through 2.
The Celtics dominated the regular season over the Western Conference (25-5) and they were an impressive 12-4 records against the eight playoff teams out there.
Too many people remember the Celts struggles against Atlanta and not their dominance from opening day.
The east wasn’t great, but it wasn’t as bad as it’s been for much of the last decade. The Pistons were every bit as good as San Antonio.

3. Kevin Garnett.
He is not Mr. Clutch, just yet, but trust me, this guy is taking this run to the finals very, very seriously.
Garnett has been good for most of the playoffs, but it says here he is great for the finals. While I believe Pierce’s matchup with Kobe Bryant is the key to the series, Garnett is the wild card.
The Lakers don’t have anybody in his stratosphere, especially with their big men, that can match Garnett’s intensity.
He came to Boston for one reason and that was to win these four games.
At practice on Monday it was like talking to someone in search of their lost child. There was no joy in just getting this far.

4. Celtics defense.
The Lakers just clipped one of the best defensive teams in the league in San Antonio (90.6), which trailed only Detroit (90.1) and Boston (90.3) in points allowed.
Not only that, but they beat them pretty good (4-1).
There will be a difference beginning Thursday night at the Garden. The Celtics defense is better. In fact, with regrets to the Pistons, the Celtics defense is the best in the league.
The Celtics defense, as expected, has been even better in their playoff slump.They have allowed only 87.3 points per game in 20 playoff games.
The Lakers strength, beyond Kobe Bryant, is their ability to score. Only two teams averaged more points

5. Lakers defense.
What defense? Exactly.
The Celtics struggles throughout the playoffs have mostly been related to their offense. Cleveland and, more specifically, Detroit were the Celtics equal on defense.
It meant very few open looks for really anybody not named Rajon Rondo. It caused some consternation on the Celtics said as Paul Pierce is really the only player noted for creating his own shot.
The Lakers will not be confused with the Cavs or Pistons on defense. They allowed 101.3 points per game this past season, a 10-spot more than the Celtics did.
The plays right into the Celtics weakness, which has been generating offense, particularly on the road.
This factor might be the key to the series.

6. Ray Allen.
I said it before and I’ll say it again: Everything changed Game 5 in Boston. It changed because Allen, for the first time since the playoffs began, decided he was going to “really” look for his shot.
Maybe it was playing against Richard Hamilton, who would uses every ounce of energy to get open.
Whatever is the case, Allen’s 29 and 17 point efforts the last two games against Detroit, included five 3-pointers in Game 5 and three more in Game 6, gave the Celtics an offensive lift.

7. Garnett-Allen vs. Gasol-Odom.
Let’s just say Paul Pierce almost plays Kobe Bryant to a draw, which is highly probable being what is at stake.
That means one of the key secondary matchups is with the next grouping of stars.
For the Celtics it is Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and for the Lakers it is Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.
Is this a fair fight? I don’t think so.
Mind you, Gasol (18.8 points, 7.8 rebounds) and Odom (14.2, 10.6) are deserving players. But are they up to snuff with Garnett (18.8, 9.2) and Allen (17.4 points per game)?
What this means is Kobe has to beat Pierce every night. I don’t see it happening.

8. Homecourt advantage.
This is not about simply winning at home, as the Lakers have not lost at the Staples Center.
This is about a city, Boston, awakening it basketball roots again.
I’m guessing the TD Banknorth Garden will be like the old Boston Garden. It will be louder than we have ever, and I mean ever, heard it before.
Celtics fans are not going to be nice to the Lakers or the referees. By that I mean, they will be on every possession as if it is their last.
Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who had public squabbles with Red Auerbach near the end of his life, will hear it too.
If the Lakers can overcome playing here, particularly secondary players like Odom and Gasol, they will win. I don’t think they will.

9. Let’s get physical.
Remember the famous clothes line, with Kurt Rambis flying out of bounds after a Kevin McHale arm across his chest?
That probably won’t occur in this series, and neither will easy layups.
The Celtics will need to be physical and they have bodies | Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe, P.J. Brown and James Posey | to do it.
The Celtics will try to slow the pace when the Lakers have the ball and that’s where the physical play will begin.

10. A perfect ending (storm).
Is this a fairy tale or is perfect ending?
Teams don’t make wholesale changes like the Celtics did and win a championship. It just doesn’t happen. In fact, it’s never happened.
Until now.
Danny Ainge found two superstars, Garnett and Allen, with Hall of Fame statistics, and added them to Pierce and all of sudden Celtics basketball and, better yet, Celtics pride has returned.
The Celtics luckily survived their growing pains with Atlanta and Cleveland. I believe what happened against Detroit was the rule rather than the exception.
Garnett, Pierce and Allen have too much at stake here. This might be their only chance.
I say Celtics in six.
I say will be fun, too.

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