Question 7: Is Jon Lester ready for 17-12 and 180 innings?
Apr 7th, 2008 by Bill Burt
Basically, put another way, is Jon Lester a No. 3 starter on a world champion?
When Curt Schilling was officially put on IR for three to four months, maybe longer, this became a question.
Lester has shown flashes of brilliance and, maybe even more flashes of frustration. Like Dice-K, his problem is strikes and consistency.
Lester is the Red Sox only left-handed starter, which makes him even more valuable if he is good.
He turned 24 on Jan. 7, which means he is still pup. With Josh Beckett and Dice-K ahead of him, he doesn’t need to be a 20-game winner, hence the pressure isn’t as grand as it would be if he were on a second or third tier team.
But in Boston, a No. 3 starter on a contender does not get let off the hook.
Ideally, the Sox were hoping to bring Lester along slowly, in the No. 4 or No. 5 spot. But that’s not an option in 2008.
He has to be a steady, 6 to 7 inning pitcher, which he never really has been. That means 15 pitches per inning rather than his standard of 20 per frame. That means 180 to 200 innings pitched.
His performance in the 2007 World Series clincher should not be taken for granted. The Rockies had a good lineup and he shut them down for nearly six innings, allowing only three hits, a start that came after an 11-day layoff.
The point is he answered the bell when he had too. The Sox, though, were ahead in the series with the Rockies 3-0 with little to lose. That’s not the case in 2008. The Red Sox will be counting on Lester … a lot.
Does he have it in him to be a 17-12 pitcher, which might be a necessary performance if the Red Sox make it to October?
I believe this is going to be a big year for Lester. The Red Sox do too because they did not want to give him up in the trade for Johan Santana.
I’ve noted that Jason Varitek is Lester’s biggest fan, which in my mind says something.
What do you think?
4 reader comments to “Question 7: Is Jon Lester ready for 17-12 and 180 innings?”
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1Steve said:
No. And that apparently means Sox are in trouble.
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2Marcel said:
You already said it. If he can find the strike-zone on a consistent basis, he will be more than adequate as a #3. His stuff is excellent. Plus curveball, fastball and cutter are above-average, and his change is pretty decent as well for a fourth pitch (even though I don’t think he throws either of his off-speed pitches enough. He threw over 80% FB and CT combined last year.) He should have no problem mowing through impatient teams (Twins, Angels, Royals, Mariners) but teams like the Yankees, Indians, and even the Rays are going to give him fits as long as he’s not putting the ball in the zone. He doesn’t need to have have a Randy Johnson type of revelation here, just getting his ratio below 4BB/9ip would be a great start.
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3Curt said:
I think this is the worst blog in America.
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4Dave said:
I think Marcel hit it on the head. He has no chance against the more patient teams in the league becasue he can’t consistently pound the strike zone. I hope Bartolo can eat up some innings (no pun intended, ok maybe a little!) and keep them in some games when needed. That said, I think Lester is good for 12-15 wins for this team but anything above that would be very suprising.
