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Question 2: Is Dice-K ready to be a true No. 2?

Mar 28th, 2008 by Bill Burt

This is up for debate. I’ve heard everything from, “He’s a potential ace” to a “He’s over-rated.”
Well, we will get some answers and we will probably get them very quickly as Daisuke Matsuzaka is thrown in the first immediately.
With Josh Beckett still on the mend, though he will pitch on April 4 in Toronto, which will be the fifth game of the season, Dice-K’s early importance grows a bit.
I will say his opening day performance wasn’t the stuff of legends. It was some of the same-old Dice-K (nibbling, walks and wild control). But we did see the dominant Dice-K, too, who looked like a grand master the last three innings.
With Curt Schilling out maybe the entire season, this is an important question. Can Dice-K handle being almost “The Man.”
I believe so. I think there is an 18-game winner with an ERA a full run lower than a year ago (about 3.5).
Though he does appear to have a stubborn side to him. He likes to do things his way.
What are you thoughts?

Posted in Red Sox | Comments

  • Jerry R
    Yes. Dice-man is ready for a big season. He can be frustrating to watch sometimes. When he misses Varitek's glove it's by a three feet instead of three inches some times. But he makes hitters look so bad sometimes. He must have something there. I believe he steps up this season and proves to be a very good pitcher. I'd like to see about 17 wins and an ERA under 4.00. That is not unrealistic I don't think.
  • Steve
    Bill
    I still am not sure about Matsuzaka. I wish I was as impressed as you are. He is good, but I don't think he's as great as advertised. You are probably right. We will see this season when his role becomes a little bigger. Put me under he'll never be bigger than a No. 3 starter, which is not worth $102 million.
  • Jerry, I'm more in your corner. I think he is special because of his background, being a phenom since Day 1 in Japan and really have no issues in the Boston media circus. As I've said, he's used to it. He's dealt with it his entire life. Now, as Steve says, he has to get his head in order, which means he has to do a better job dealing with disgreements with umps and do a lot less nibbling of corners.
    I had a conversation with Lou Merloni last week and he says Dice-K's biggest problem is he doesn't pitch to contact. He tries to strike every batter out and that mentality, he says, is too mentally draining. I agree. He has to get batters out not every one has to be a strikeout.
  • StO
    Diasuke may have the tools but we need to keep watching to see if he can master the critical element of consistency. One hyped game is not a good sample. By the end of April, we'll have a better idea if he will be able to better his 1st season in the bigs.

    “...if you aim for consistency, the numbers will be there at the end.” - Tom Seaver
  • Marcel
    I honestly believe that the biggest thing holding Daisuke back at this point is Varitek. He insists on throwing a ridiculously high number of fastballs (over 55%) when it is only his third best pitch, behind the slider and the changeup. And that fact is made even more glaring when you realize that he only threw the change 5% of the time. He has 6 pitches that grade out as at least a 50, yet Varitek has him throwing as basically a fastball/cutter/slider guy. Keith Law mentioned last year while Daisuke was struggling that he should be throwing more changeups or splitters as they are both above-average pitches (plus in the case of the change) and can keep the hitters of the fastball much more effectively than the slider. Looking at his peripherals, he has elite K/9 and Hits/9 ratios. The HR/9 ratio is a bit high, but not glaringly so and the initial reports from Japan had him as a flyball pitcher that did give a fair number of homeruns a year. The biggest problem was the walks, and I honestly am not sure what caused that as he K:BB ratios more along the lines of 4:1 in Japan. If he can regain some modicum of control (say, only 60 BB) and if Varitek realizes he's much more of a Maddux style pitcher and starts changing speeds more often, I think he can break through this year. Say a 3.50 ERA, 220Ks, 15-18 wins.
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