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What do the Jaguars need to do to win the game?

Mike
A few things have to happen:
1. At least three or four Patriots turnovers, maybe one returned for a touchdown or deep in Jags territory.
2. David Garrard will have to throw two or three TD passes. Teams that have given the Patriots trouble have run the ball AND passed for TDs.
3. Keep the score in the 20s, which means run out the clock and force at least three Patriots field goals.
4. The Patriots look lousy, which they’ve done from time to time.
5. Moons align in our solar system.
Basically, I don’t see it happening. Not in Foxboro. Basically, Pats have to make some major mistakes. The one thing the Jags have going for them is they are tough.

Do you think that the Patriots will find a way to shut down Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew?

Max
Very good question. My guess is these guys are productive, but not great. The Patriots have been famous for giving up yards in the middle of the field, but they are tougher in the red zone.
I believe the Patriots slow these two down. I’m guessing Jones-Drew gets 17 carries for 55 yards and Taylor gets 13 carries for 45 yards. That’s 100 yards, but not enough.
So yes, I believe they can somewhat shut these guys down. I believe I’m in the minority here. People feel the Jags will run all over them. But Pats D-line is very good, especially the guy in the middle.

When will your picks for this week be up?

Who on the Patriots do you think will surprise us with a big game?

Max
My picks will be up tomorrow. I will let the cat out of the bag on the Pats-Jags pick. I have Pats by four TDs.

Steve from NA
A very good question. I believe the Donte Stallworth has been in hiding and Brady won’t force it to Moss like he has been. I am predicting a big day by Stallworth, maybe 7 catches, 100 yards. Just a hunch.

Why do you think the Patriots will kill the Jags? I think it’s going to be a tough game.

Steve from NA
I just think people are underestimating the Patriots. I think they are going to try to bury this team right away, which means touchdowns, and then force Jacksonville to throw the ball more than they want.
Trust me, I like Jacksonville. I just think the Patriots have been waiting for this weekend a long time.
Teams that really have only one way to hurt you (they can run the hell out of the ball with Jones-Drew and Taylor) always have problems against Belichick. He goes takes away strengths and goes after weaknesses better than any coach in the game.
Good question.

Mike
I have a little more on the first question, asking about how the Jaguars can beat the Patriots.
They need to take chances. They have to throw to Asante Samuel’s side. They have to go for it on 4th and 1 at midfield. They can’t let the Patriots bully them by forcing them to throw only on third and long. The Jaguars need to score TDs and run out the clock. If they can do that, they have a chance.

How do you think Laurence Maroney will do? The Steelers didn’t really run the ball that much against the Jaguars last week.

Carrie
I believe Maroney’s best days are ahead. He was disappointing almost for an entire year, from middle of 2006 through a good chunk of 2007.
Coach Belichick downplayed it when asked (I tried several times), saying Maroney has always done well. But those two TD runs against the Giants were big. They were both power runs where he knocked over a defender.
He is coming into his own. I don’t think he’ll be the centerpiece on Saturday night because the Patriots want to extend the game and make it a track meet as much as possible. But if they are inside the 5-yard line, you can expect him to carry to the ball.

What do you think will happen in the Indy game versus San Diego?

A blowout.
San Diego is a second rate team. They might even be behind Jacksonville. I sort of saw this coming after the way they dealt with the loss to the Patriots. I’ve never heard a team whine like they did. I believe they are finished as a great team, which they were a year ago.
I believe they will be lose by nearly three TDs to Indianapolis.

why do the experts always use the word physical when they describe teams like the jaguars and steelers. if they are so physical, why do the patriots keep beating these so called physical teams. i think it is a bunch of nonsense to think that the patriots are not as physical just because they dont run as much. what do you think?

Bocatennis
Go have another pina colada and relax. The one thing the Jaguars have going for them is they are tough. But I agree, it isn’t enough. You have to throw the ball to beat the Patriots. That’s what people don’t understand. Running helps, but you have to deliver the rock to the end zone.
As for the Patriots being physical, Larry Csonka told me a few weeks ago that the one thing he like about them was their toughness, especially on the offensive line.
The D-line is tough, too.

Bill
Keep up the good work. Do you think the weather plays into the game? It is supposed to be about 40 degrees.

Ray
Thanks for the note.
There is only a 20 percent chance of precipitation, which basically means dry field. The key for the Patriots is wind and at night in Foxboro is usually tame. I don’t think it will matter at all.

I’d like to know your record for picking Patriots games this season?
I was 14-2. I had them losing to the Colts.

Michael
16-and-0.
I had them winning them all. But my guess is I was not alone. They were favored in every game they played.
What was the other loss you had them getting?

i will have another frozen pina colada with 150 proof white rum and relax at the beach. it was 80 and sunny today in south florida. i think mr. kraft is the reason that this franchise is the best in pro sports today. what do you think?

San Diego

bocatennis
I may come down and see your area during the Super Bowl bye week. As for Bob Kraft, he is the king. He and his son Jonathan are two of the smartest businessmen in the country. Think about the product they developed here in New England when they took over.
My guess is out of the 120 or pro franchises in the four major sports, based in the US, the Patriots were ranked about 108th in terms of popularity.
Now, they are No. 1. Enough said. They are the most revered franchise in pro sports. He talked many times about overspending ($171 million, I believe) for the franchise and $25 million for the dump, I mean Foxboro Stadium.
My educated guess is, including property on Route 1, the franchise is worth, get this, $1.5 billion.
Amazing. And they’ve done it the right way.

San Diego?
Maybe you should have a few pina coladas with bocatennis. They were a mess in September and they are a semi-mess now.

Like Roger Clemens will be doing in a month or so, I plead the Fifth.

Insanity might be better …
Off the subject a bit, I believe the Colts will bury the Chargers. Teams have figured out how to contain LaDanian Tomlinson and with Antonio Gates hurt, Colts will have their way.

I have Seymore having a giant game. Pats 24 Jags 6 How big will Welker be this week?

Brian
Seymour is getting healthy finally and playing his best. He is going against one of the bigger offensive lines in the league and he will oppose left tackle Khalif Barnes, who is 6-foot-5, 330 pounds. They met before and Seymour has had decent games, getting a lot of pressure on Leftwich in the playoff game in the postseason (2005). The one disappointing aspect about the D-Line has been pressure on the quarterback, which was a first half problem against the Giants in the 2007 finale. If Seymour has a big game, lights are out.
As for Welker, he is the go-to guy in the middle of the field. In big games, he has played his best. I already predicted a big day for Donte Stallworth, but I believe Welker might have two or three big first down catches.

Welker will have 2 touchdown catches.

What matchup do you feel is the biggest for the Patriots?
Will Coach Belichick retire when he goes 19 & 0?

Brian
If Welker has two TD catches, the Pats will win easily. I believe Moss and Stallworth will both be big targets. I also believe the Jags will try to hit Welker inside. They know how important he is for Brady, especially on third down.
As for Belichick, he ain’t goin’ nowhere … in other words, no chance. This guy eats, sleeps and drinks football. He is too young (55) and has four or five more years of guaranteed contention with Tom Brady around.
I know he loves it here in New England. His kids are here and he is very close to all three of them. My guess is he puts in another decade and then takes a President job with some team, maybe the Patriots.
As for the key matchup, it is Jags center Brad Meester, a very good run blocker, against Vince Wilfork, who might be the toughest nose tackle to block in the league. If Wilfork cause havoc, game is over. If Meester can get the better of Wilfork, this could be a game. The Jags run a lot inside the tackles.

Bill
What do you think about Ellis Hobbs? He seems to be the weak link on the team.

John
I was wondering if I’d be asked about Ellis.
He is probably the most approachable Patriot of them all. He can talk until the lights go out. He is a very nice guy.
As for his play, I agree, he is almost always the guy attacked when it comes time to throw 20-plus yards down the field.
It’s probably a testament to Asante Samuel, who some feel is now the best cornerback in the league.
Hobbs is a physical corner, like Ty Law. The knock on him is he gives big cushions, and is susceptible to the 15-yard out. And he goes for the interception more than he should.
Basically, he’s a decent cornerback who has not had a good year. He has the tools, quick feet and great technique, but at times he appears to go on his own.
Remember, he did make the key interception on Eli Manning, to set up the eventual winning score by Maroney. But it came on a zone defense and he was in the right spot.
As for the “weak link” comment, I understand. Is there a weak link on a 16-0 team?

I will take one more question …

Will the Patriots beat the Colts?

Nice try.
One game at a time. Haven’t you been listening to coach the last four month?
Let’s just say I believe the Patriots are a better team right now. Let’s talk again on Sunday night.
Personally, I’d love to see Indy-NE. It rivals the Sox-Yanks.

Thanks everybody.
This was great.
We will do this again next week if there is still football to be had.
I have a column in tomorrow’s newspapers about the Patriots and why they will win big against the Jaguars.
Thanks again.

A great session Bill, I really enjoyed all the comments. These guys know their football and you top them all.
Thank you!
John

If the Pats do what you predicted them to do then I will se you next week!