You’ve heard about the Patriots slump (despite the wins), the fact that other teams have a blueprint for stopping their defense, the Patriots can’t stop the run, their linebackers are old and the Steelers have the No. 1 defense.
All of those factors have validity when deciphering what will happen at Gillette Stadium from 4:15 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. on Sunday.
The Patriots have not looked great lately. Their precision on offense isn’t so precise. And they really did look “soft,” relatively speaking of course, the last two games.
But here are a few other trends to consider:
1. Pittsburgh isn’t that good.
They are 9-3, but upon further review they have only beaten two teams with a record above .500, Cleveland (twice) and Seattle.
And they’ve lost to, get this, the N.Y. Jets (19-16), Arizona (21-14) and Denver (31-28), all on the road.
The Jets? You’ve got to be kidding me. And that was only three weeks ago.
Worse, they needed a last second field goal to beat Miami in that washout game, 3-0, two weeks ago.
Pittsburgh is good. They’re not that good.
2. The Patriots have not lost.
I know this is subject people don’t want to discuss, but the Patriots are unbeaten. They won last week in Baltimore, a game the Ravens treated like a Super Bowl. The same with the Eagles the week before, who were 24-point underdogs. They didn’t take that lightly, but in the end the Patriots gutted it out. Isn’t that what great teams do? Win when you don’t play well.
Granted they haven’t looked great and there are a few concerns, primarily on defense, but the Patriots have a history of winning championships in ugly fashion.
3. The Patriots don’t lose at home.
When the Patriots have been great this century (2003 and 2004) they had a common denominator: 0. That is zero losses at home.
Every other season, even when the Patriots have been good or very good, they have lost a few at home. Even last year, they lost three games at Gillette Stadium.
The point is when the Patriots have been great, they have been great at home. The Eagles game, I believe, was the exception and not the rule.
4. Patriots pride.
The Patriots are not only being reviled, but they are being questioned. The Steelers are playing the Patriots at the wrong time. They do have a lot to prove.
If the Patriots were to lose, and I’m not saying that is an impossibility, my guess is they would drop down the Indy and Dallas level. They realize that.
The Patriots have a lot to lose if they lose. This factor might be as important as any in the Patriots performance.
I will predict a score later today. But you can probably see where I am going with this.
What are your thoughts?