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Tim Wakefield: Can Sox depend on him in October?

Sep 10th, 2007 by Bill Burt

Let’s look at three different answers to that question:

1. Of course.

Wakefield has 16 wins heading into this series, tied for fourth in the American League and is coming off a recent stretch of 22 scoreless innings.

When he throws strikes, he is usually on, especially on the first pitch, which most opposing batters take. While he has had few bumpy streaks in 2007, he has been a mainstay in the rotation other than his back problem.

He has experience and he’s been a Red Sox longer than anybody. He has averaged 6.22 innings per start this season, which is close to Curt Schilling (6.25).

2. Maybe.

If we were grading out starting Red Sox pitchers right now, Wakefield is probably a No. 4 pitcher in the rotation.

His recent back problems are a concern because of his age (41), but he’s pitching a little better this year than he has been entering the last two post-seasons (12-10, 4.87 ERA in 2004; 16-12, 4.12 ERA in 2005).

 He’s had four starts in August in which he pitched at least seven innings, which is pretty good.

 3. No.

While he has experience, his age might be showing during this run.

Sandwiched around his torrid streak of 22 scoreless innings streak was two bad outings against the Orioles (6 ER in 3 2/3 innings) and Angels (6 ER in 4 innings). 

His last two post-seasons, in 2004 and 2005, he allowed 16 runs in 16 1/3 innings.

He was 1-5 this season against the Yankees, Angels and Padres, three possible playoff opponents. 

He is a good regular season innings’ eater, but is not what you want in October.

Prognosis?

This is a tough one, especially when you have Clay Buchholz looking like he’s ready for prime time.

Wakefield’s attitude earns him points, but that’s not what they give away in October. That’s when World Series trophies are won.

Wakefield’s August streak is something to consider.

The Wild Card here is Dice-K, who is looking like he could use a week off. Right now, he might be the No. 6 guy on the list with Jon Lester gaining with every start.

Basicially, this question is up in the air. I can see each argument. But we might know more in a few weeks as Wakefield tries to find his form against Tampa tomorrow night and then Toronto, probably on Monday.

Wouldn’t you agree he needs to at least pitch well, say 7 innings and 3 runs per average to quell any talk of moving someone else into the rotation?

What do you think?

Coming tomorrow: Jonathan Papelbon: Is he the best in baseball?

Posted in Red Sox | Comments

  • pasta diving lugo
    These are such poor topics.

    Wake is great but he has an era of over 6 for his post season starts. Why even ask the question? Knuckler does not like cold weather. See what happens if the temps are down this next evening against a team he has dominated in hot tampa in august.

    We cannot start DiceK in the Yankees series. It has to be Bucholtz. There's your topic for the week.

    Great start by Schill tonight. You can twirl the d-raze but I don't think more sophisticated post season teams are going to be fooled with an 88mph fastball.

    Buccholz and Lester -- I'd have them both starting against the Yanks in the upcoming series. That's our postseason.

    Is Popplearm the best in baseball? Ask me in 10 seasons. Until then there are at least a half dozen others who are better.

    Problem now is that we have no one after Beckett.
  • PDL
    Keep the language (we removed a swear) clean, please.
    As for the topic, I believe it is legit. Your final comment seconds the notion. The Red Sox have some question marks after Beckett, including and especially Tim Wakefield. But Wakefield has had a good season, which can't be lost. As for October, it's worth debating.
  • In my humble opinion, knuckler is as knuckler does.

    I adore Tim Wakefield. He is, hands down, one of my favorite pitchers to watch. The way that knuckleball can dance mesmerizes me. And to see power hitters befuddled by it is almost comical. You know they want to take their bats & just beat that ball into the ground like an annoying little mosquito hovering around, flitting away, mocking your efforts to swat it -- and you just *know* that little pest is going to bite you before long. Not to mention the joy of watching the opponent try to readjust to Papelbon's heat after Wakey's slo-mo.

    But the knuckle ball is fickle. And when it is uncooperative, things can get ugly in a hurry. This is the risk that is taken when you have a tool with the potential to be devastating, but no guarantees that it will show up.

    Fickle or not, though, there have been only two starters this season -- especially post All Star Break -- that do not make me cringe when I see their name is up in the rotation. Beckett and Wakefield. I think this decision needs to be made based on Wakefield's health, and what we see from him these last three weeks of regular season. If he continues to make magic like he has to earn his sixteen wins, then I am all for some strategically-placed October flutterball. And there's always the Buchholz chaser that worked out well this last time through when Wakefield just wasn't feeling it. (Buchholz is available for post season, right? I can't seem to find a clear & direct answer to this anywhere.)
  • Dawn
    I agree with Wakefield. As long as he is steady the rest of the way, two decent outings and one bad one, he is worthy. And let's be honest, he is ahead of Dice-K on the depth chart as we speak. But Buchholz is interesting -- and yes, he is available for playoffs before he was on the Sox 40-man roster before Sept. 1 -because the Sox can't discount what he has done, which has been short of perfect.
    Wakefield has a big start tonight, albeit against the Devil Rays, but with the Yankees now 4 behind in the loss column, this series gains a little more momentum in importance.
    One stat that isn't pro-Wakefield is performance against good teams this season. But when he was on that streak, his ball moved so much that nobody could have hit him. Again, this will be interesting as it plays out.
  • pasta diving lugo
    dawn:
    both you and burt have avoided dealing with the elephant in the conversation which is wake's over-6 era in the post season and the observations of many that the knuckler does not dance in cold weather.

    and god, burt, will you check your facts occasionally -- the lead is five as the Yankees had a day off yesterday travelling to toronto. my concern is the lead will be only 3 by Friday night and that this thing is going to be a dead heat by the end of next weekend. Not to mention that arod might hit career #521 at fenway this year. may as well let them kick teddy ballgame's frozen head around the outfield during batting practice -- the ignominy of it all.

    sorry about the misplaced "bad" language. I've been reading your site for a few months now and as it was littered with profanity, thought it was part of your style. i'll be careful. hope your other posters will too.
  • pasta diving lugo
    they are five behind.

    no debate. the guy has 6.0 + era in october and as I pointed out teh knuckle does not flutter in cold weather. It was beautiful in August in Tampa but in the low 60's on a september night in boston, it didn't happen.

    THOSE THINGS are worth debate. not your wow! isn't johnny popplearm the greatest. get serious burt.
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