What, me worry?
Mar 11th, 2007 by Rob Bradford
This is what the Red Sox front office utters with every dip in performance that shows up on its doorstep in Fort Myers. Spring training talent evaluation is a tricky thing, which I tried to portray in today’s Eagle-Tribune story (shamless cross-promotion alert … I’m sorry, I have to utter the words just to make me feel better). Oh, and questions (all of them) will be answered tonight.
Here is the piece…
Judging spring training an inexact science
World Series hero Keith Foulke looked like a bust, Cesar Crespo looked like an All-Star
The Bradford Files
Rob Bradford
Tuesday somebody in the Red Sox organization sang the praises of Brendan Donnelly. It was said that potentially he could get more swings and misses than most of the other closer candidates, while showing the kind of don’t-look-back mentality that fits those final-out relievers.
Wednesday Donnelly went through one of those shiver-down-the-spine, four-run relief outings against the New York Mets.
Did the 24 hours of changing public perception alter Donnelly’s status within the offices of the Red Sox? Not really.
It is early March, spring training and the uphill portion of whatever curve most of these Red Sox players will be judged. Look away from those spring training statistics. Shield your eyes from late-afternoon City of Palms Park home runs. Understand that often times the game results aren’t being measured in the front office as fervently as those getting information feeds north of the Mason-Dixon line.
Case in point: Donnelly hadn’t been happy with his split-fingered pitch, so that’s what he bombarded the Mets hitters with. Count didn’t matter. Situation was inconsequential. Using the venue to venture into the final week of spring training with the right stuff was the only goal.
Donnelly isn’t coming off an injury or a bad season. His strikeout rate per nine innings (9.0) is still the best among the closer candidates, and moving from one organization to another isn’t about to faze him (having done it 10 times already). These bits of information will be the foundation Boston uses to decide Donnelly’s fate, not a singular home run off the bat of Damion Easley.
But this remains the challenge for the Red Sox decision-makers: How much should they factor in spring training performance when identifying who goes where? History - the three previous spring trainings under the guidance of general manager Theo Epstein - will partially be Boston’s guide.
There are pitfalls with using spring training as the ultimate roster-building jumping off point. Here are five examples Boston can look to for guidance.
The Lucky
BRONSON ARROYO, 2003: The Red Sox had picked him up off waivers in the offseason leading into the 2003 season, meaning that at least three-quarters of baseball had no desire to reserve a 40-man roster spot for the pitcher who had spent the majority of the previous season in Triple A.
Once in Fort Myers with the Red Sox, Arroyo showed his new team it could have a pretty decent pitcher on its hands. But when it came time to carve out a spot on the roster, he wasn’t deemed as valuable as a guy named Steve Woodard.
So, in the final days of March, the team put Arroyo through waivers again. Whether it was because he had finished the spring pitching in a slew of “B” and simulated games, or that there wasn’t a mid-90s fastball to sell, no team claimed the righty.
After clearing waivers and being sent to Pawtucket, Arroyo still didn’t get the call to Boston until Aug. 25, dominating Triple-A hitters in the meantime (which included a no-hitter for the PawSox). Since then he has done enough to end up on the cover of this season’s Cincinnati Reds media guide, while offering the Red Sox a not-so-subtle reminder regarding late-March evaluations.
The Bad
CESAR CRESPO, 2004: At the conclusion of 2004 spring training, it was hard to ignore what Crespo had accomplished in his 11/2 months in Fort Myers. He broke camp with a .354 Grapefruit League batting average, while finishing second among all American League spring participants in walks (11).
The decision came down to Crespo or veteran infielder Tony Womack, who was coming off Tommy John surgery and taking his time showing his preseason stuff because of the injury. It was determined that Crespo was the player to keep.
Well, Crespo went on to play in 52 games for the Red Sox, but never walked once in 79 at-bats. He also managed just 13 hits, compared to the 23 he had totaled in spring training. Womack, meanwhile, was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for minor league pitcher Matt Duff, who pitched in an independent league last year.
Womack and the Red Sox would be re-introduced in the 2004 World Series, after he finished that regular season hitting .307 in 553 at-bats for the Cards.
5 reader comments to “What, me worry?”
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1Anonymous said:
2 Home runs let up by Dice-K to Orioles nobodies. YUCK.
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2rememberboggs said:
You said it anonymous, 2 homers is absolute garbage!
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3mouse said:
Great article, Rob.
I always remind myself “It’s only Spring Training” after each game this time of year. But it can still be hard to not get too excited about a player doing well, or too worried about a player that’s struggling.
And I have certainly not soured on Matsuzaka after his outing today!
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4Anonymous said:
Apparently the first two posters didn’t read the article they commented in.
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5Anonymous said:
As bad as Matsusaka looked today, I think we can all agree that those homeless kittens in Andover look adorable.
Rob, is anyone at the Eagle Tribune looking into pet homelessness in other regions of the state? I’d be curious to here where all those abandoned kitties are. They’re just so cute!
Looking forward to an answer, and thanks so much for all your hard work. Go Sox!
