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It’s probably time to put this Bill Belichick Moment to bed, so I’ll give it a try here.
After speaking to several local football coaches, I found that two of them made a similar call — leading a game, deep in their own territory, fourth and short. Both of them made it and won their games.
But nine out of the 10 coaches contacted, including the two who had made that decision in the past, probably would have punted. But all of them “understood” why he made the decision to go for it.
My thoughts?
I understand. I disagree. But more importantly, I believe Belichick lost one of those rare opportunities to give his defense a chance to make a difference and gain confidence that would have or could have led to special things.
If you remember the 2003 Pats-Colts game, which the Pats won 38-34. It was the defense that stopped Peyton Manning and the Colts offense on the goal line to end the game.
That defense was dominant the rest of the way en route to the first of back-to-back Super Bowls. That’s why I disagreed most with Belichick’s gamble.

Las Vegas oddsmakers opened the season with the Patriots as the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Well, the Patriots have something to prove this weekend if they want to get back in good stead with the gamblers of the free world.
The New Orleans Saints are listed as the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If you bet $100 on that to happen, and the Saints won, you would get back $185.
The second pick to win is the Indianpolis Colts. You bet $100 on them and you could win $350 if they took the Lombardi trophy.
Your Patriots are currently the third pick in most casinos, listed at $400.
Here are the rest of the good to decent teams and what their payoff would be if they were to win the Super Bowl, based on a $100 bet:
Minnesota: $700
Pittsburgh: $1,000
Dallas: $1,000
Philadelphia: $1,500
San Diego: $2,000
Denver: $2,000
Cincinnati: $2,000.

If you ask me, I like the Steelers at, basically, 10-1. I also like the Vikings at 7-1.
As for a long shot, the Giants are $3,000 (30-1). I’d take a shot on them.

Sunday’s games
New England 24, INDIANAPOLIS 23 … Pats officially contenders
TENNESSEE 27, Buffalo 20 … Titans playing like decent team
New Orleans 31, ST. LOUIS 24 … Probably tougher than expected
MIAMI 31, Tampa Bay 17 … A must-win for Dolphins
MINNESOTA 38, Detroit 13… Rested Vikings romp
N.Y. JETS 24, Jacksonville 13 … Big deal
PITTSBURGH 24, Cincinnati 21 … Steelers get revenge in close game
Denver 26, WASHINGTON 20 … Not sure if Broncos in trouble
Atlanta 27, CAROLINA 20 … Falcons desperate for road win
OAKLAND 23, Kansas City 20 … A big mistake picking KC last week
SAN DIEGO 26, Philadelphia 23 … Both teams very hard to figure
ARIZONA 31, Seattle 17… Cardinals need to be consistent
Dallas 31, GREEN BAY 27 … Packers loss to Bucs was unforgivable
Monday night
Baltimore 38, CLEVELAND 17 … Cleveland Clowns more like it.
Home teams in CAPS
Last week: 6-7
Season: 80-48

You see the press conferences when Bill Belichick plays a combination of town librarian and poker player — Monotone and emotionless.
He can really be an unlikeable guy from afar.
But then you watch this video, from last week’s game against Miami, and you understand why he is one of the best, maybe ever.
He is also very entertaining to watch and hear.
A far cry from the daily dull press conferences.

I will break slightly from the trend to pick the teams with the best records, wait for them to lose, and then drop them down.
Here are the best six teams, I believe, with their win-loss record being a key factor, but not the only factor:

1. New Orleans Saints (8-0): I believe that they have been championship driven from Day 1. They have a quarterback, Drew Brees, playing as well as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They just are a tough team that refuses to lose. I like the fact that they can run the ball as well as pass.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): The Steelers just win, baby. They are going to be tough to knock off in a big game. The key is not to play that game in Pittsburgh. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is one Super Bowl title away from tying Brady. The Steelers defense is the best, I don’t care what stats say.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1): I am shocked at how good this team is. I love the way they pressue the opposing team’s QB. Jared Allen is a superstar pass-rusher. Kudos must go to Brett Favre. He hasn’t made the mistakes we counted on. Imagine talking about this team and mentioning Adrian Peterson third. That’s how good they are.

4. Indianapolis Colts (8-0): I just think the loss of their defensive backfield is going to hurt them going forward. I am leaning toward the Colts possibly losing three straight games to the Patriots, Ravens and Texans. I love Peyton Manning and the Colts. I believe the Pats and Colts are dead even. Their game on Sunday, I will almost guarantee, will come down to the final play.

5. New England Patriots (6-2): They could crack the top three if the Steelers or Vikings lose, but right now they are anywhere from the fourth to sixth best team. They are playing their best football, particularly on defense, as the weather is getting colder. That’s a good sign.

6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2): The Cowboys are tough to figure. I am still a bit apprehensive, but if Favre can become more protective of the ball at age 40 then Tony Romo can at age 29. I think Wade Phillips is a great guy, but question his leadership in December. If the Patriots had the Cowboys running backs, I’d put them at No. 1.

Best of the rest …
7. N.Y. Giants (5-4): I’m in shock, but believe they will rebound slightly.
8. Cincinnati (6-2): Love their moxie, but hate their schedule
9. San Diego (5-3): Always shoots self in foot at some point.
10. Denver (6-2): Could be 10-6 when all is said and done.

It has been reported by the Red Sox that Jason Varitek is officially going to be back with the team in 2010, picking up the $3 million player option.
I’ve been told Varitek was informed his role will greatly diminish. It appears Victor Martinez will be slated to catch about 125 games, with Varitek getting the other 35 or so.
Martinez will probably play some first base and DH as well.
Is this good for the Red Sox?
It’s really up to Varitek. If he is happy in the secondary role, it will be a nice situation.

We will throw out a few stats the rest of the week on this matchup on Sunday night.
While most people like to compare Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and Brady’s slight statistical lead (7-3 record, 2-1 in playoffs and three Super Bowl rings) here’s a head-shaker.
When Rodney Harrison was in the starting lineup and finished the game, the Patriots were 5-0 versus Manning and the Colts.
The one game Harrison started and was hurt in the first quarter of a 0-0 game (in 2006 regular season), Manning led the Colts to a 27-20 win.
The other two recent wins by the Colts — in the AFC Championship in Jan. of 2007 and last season — Harrison was out. Also, Brady didn’t play last season.
Mind you, Manning has said in the past that he had a difficult time reading what Harrison was going to do — play the run or the pass. Manning once told me that Harrison was one of the best safeties he ever went up against.
Interesting.

Today was cleanup day on Yawkey Way in Boston.
Victor Martinez’s option for $7 million was picked up.
Jason Varitek’s option for $5 million and Alex Gonzalez’s for $6 million were not.
And Tim Wakefield’s perpetual $4 million option was destroyed and switched with the a two-year $5 million deal.
What does that mean? Let’s try and explain.
I spoke with an MLB source an hour ago here were his takes on all of the above:
1. The Red Sox will try to sign Martinez to a four-year extension in the $50 million range, which might not be enough. The Sox like Martinez’s versatility, attitude, power and on-base percentage.
2. The Red Sox don’t want Varitek back. They don’t see him accepting a distinct backup role with a happy face. Not only that, but the Sox want someone who, believe it or not, is better defensively than Varitek to be the backup. Varitek has a guaranteed $3 million option.
3. The Sox want Gonzalez back for half of what he made in 2009. That means a one-year deal for $3 million. The reason the Sox aren’t ready for a long-term solution at shorstop — unless of course a superstar was available — is they want to give Jed Lowrie one more healthy chance.
4. The Sox and Wakefield both gave in a little here. The Sox didn’t want to pay him $4 million and Wakefield didn’t want to play for another team. So $5 million over two years it is.

Gostkowski drills a chip shot from 40 yards and the Pats assume the insurmountable 27-17 lead.

Can the offense grind up the necessary three more first downs after a nice Brady-to-Moss hookup?
A tattered Dolphins defense simply can’t stop this team when it matters, even with the lack of a Patriots running attack.

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