A National Intelligence Estimate released this week declares with “high confidence” that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The Left immediately seized on this report as proof that George W. Bush is a warmongering nogoodnik eager to invade yet another innocent nation.
Four observations are worth making here.
1. What on earth is wrong with our intelligence gathering capability? Why did the same agencies declare in 2005 — two years after Iran supposedly shut down its nuke program — that the Islamic Republic was urgently seeking nuclear weapons technology. How can these two assessments, both made with equal declarations of high confidence, both be reliable?
2. Why do Democrats and others opposed to the Bush administration, who have spent the last four years deriding our flawed and faulty intelligence on Iraq, now believe these agencies have unveiled the gospel truth on Iran? Is it because it tells them what they want to hear?
3. Let’s assume that the latest NIE is 100-percent accurate and Iran did abandon pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003. What could possibly have happened in 2003 that convinced the Iranian mullahs that seeking nuclear weapons was no longer in their best interests? Could it have been a massive military invasion by the United States of their next-door neighbor?
4. Who is so naive as to believe that Iran, the world’s third largest oil exporter, wants nuclear technology solely for civilian electricity production?
A report that answers these questions would be a national intelligence estimate worth reading.