EagleTribune.com : Blogs : The Soapbox

Casino proponents, including Gov. Deval Patrick, are not going to like the report issued this morning by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation which raises serious questions about the revenue potential legal gaming holds for the state.
The MTF analysis states the governor’s estimates regarding the amount of money the state can expect to receive from new resort casinos, and the measure of property tax relief it will provide, are overblown.
The report properly notes that gaming facilities in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine are not going to stand still while the three regional casinos are being built in Massachusetts. And veteran Las Vegas casino operator William Wortman told the Eagle-Tribune recently he could have slot machines up and running at Rockingham Park within six months if New Hampshire lawmakers give him the go-ahead.
Construction of the Massachusetts casinos, meanwhile, is expected to take much longer than that. And once open in 2012 or thereabouts, the Bay State facilities will have to capture 80 percent of the $2.6-billion New England gambling market in order to meet the governor’s revenue projections, according to MTF.
Don’t bet on that happening.
Furthermore, the report concludes, the property tax relief Patrick promises will hardly be noticed by the average homeowner.
The problem? The governor proposes an average $204-per-homeowner tax credit, but that same person’s property tax bill is likely to go up by more than that each year, leaving that person still feeling light in the wallet.
And as for money being left over to fix the state’s failing roads and bridges, well, MTF says an 11.5-cent increase in the gas tax would provide much more effective relief.